Australian Federal Election Report
Australian politics have been characterized by unexpected occurrences but this year, everything is unique and different. The campaign period has not only been interesting but the occurrences are just but thrilling. To begin with, in June, the Australian first female Prime Minister Julia Gillard takes in the position of Kevin Rudd who was expelled by his party, an occurrence which was a major shock to him and to the general public. Nonetheless, the occurrence sets up a stage for two great characters, Julia Gillard of the labor party against Tony Abbot of the coalition party.
The occurrences in the labor party could have been sensed earlier after Mr. Rudd’s main supporter Mark Abrbib developed a noticeable closeness with Ms Gillard leaving Mr. Rudd’s alone and in the dark. Nonetheless, by June 26th, all seemed to work well with the labor party especially after the polls by Nielson suggested that Ms Gillard was ahead his opponent Abbot by 21%. However, a day earlier before Ms Gillard had called for elections, Malcolm Turnbull had already had his posters. However, on 28th July, Mr. Rudd’s decided to leak the information that Julia Gillard was for the big rise in the age pension, a statement that was used by Tony Abbot to successfully fight her.
Mr. Rudd’s Allegations never went unrewarded since after three weeks of campaign, Gillard’s reputation was actually diminishing while his opponent was taking the lead. Herald polls indicated the points of Julia Gillard as the most preferred Prime Minister had fallen by six points while the points of his opponent Tony Abbot had increased by seven points. At this point, the Labor party sought the rescue of Mr. Rudd which was not as easy since he was admitted in hospital as was supposed to undergo some surgical procedures (Live Australian election blog, 2010).
After learning that things were not going to be as easy, Julia Gillard resolved that it was time to step out and take charge of the situation. Such a decision was very necessary especially due to the fact that by second day of August, Labor’s primary vote had fallen by 37% barely two weeks after calling for the election. At this point, the votes between the two parties were equal. However, the savior of the labor party Mr. Rudd’s decided that it is not fair to allow Tony Abbot destroy what he had labored for. To achieve his goal and save the labor party, Mr. Rudd’s decided to campaign in the most unpredictable seats in Queensland not only for the sake of labor party but also as a means of defending his legacy. For Ms Gillard, situations were not favorable since the coalition was already ahead by 54% while the labor had 46%.
Eleventh August onwards marked the last ten days of fierce campaign characterized by harsh challenges expressed in the media. At this point, it was clear that the election outcome would be determined by the key seats. In addition, the news polls survey illustrated that the Coalition was on the lead because in Western Australia, the party was sixteen points a head of the Labor party and in Queensland; it was a head by eight points as it had maintained a percentage of fifty four versus forty six. Having realized the trouble ahead, Ms Gillard tried to reconcile with Mr. Rudd but it was not possible since Mark Latham, new guest reporter was out for vengeance. This was especially due to the fact that Ms Julia Gillard was complaining and was not happy with Mark as Hamish Thompson the Sunday telegraphy reporter had reported. It was clear that on 21st August during the elections of Wentworth, the labor party was already accepting defeat since their spokesman was not even available. Consequently, Turnbull took the lead with more than 60% of the total votes recording an 11.5 % swing in his favor.
According to the daily telegraph, by 22nd August, it was clear that there were only five Mps who were going to decide the fate of the nation. The five were inclusive of Lyne MP Rob Oakeshot, MP for Tasmanian Andrew Wiley, Tony Windsor MP for New England, Queensland MP Bob Katter and Geens MP Adam Bandt. According to the statement by Lyne MP Mr. Oakeshot, there was no evidence for any decision soon as he personally stated that he was not ready to commit to any party.
Politic is surely unpredictable. On 25th August 2010, things had turned upside down since by the look of the situation, Greens was the emerging winner party. This was due to the fact that the share of the vote of the Labor party had fallen by five percent while the share of the Coalition party had risen by 1.4% only and lastly the share of the Greens party had risen by 3.6 points. Although the competition was so stiff, was not easy to know why there was so much change. In addition, if the changes were a result of the occurrences during the campaign period, it was easy almost to conclude that the Green would eventually win since the campaign period was coming to an end. However, it was only the elections results that can clearly indicate the fate of Australia as well as the fate of the parties’ involved (Live Australian election blog, 2010).
At the beginning of the campaign period, it looked as if the floor was only for the Labor and the Coalition party. The Labor party was the most preferred but the popularity of the same began to diminish as soon as Ms Julia Gillard was chosen to replace Mr. Rudd. Although Ms Julia had vowed to let the public know what she was made of; the news polls did not record any significant progress. As a result the coalition party took lead but towards the end of the campaign period, things turned upside down. The news polls by 25th August indicated that the Greens party was on the forefront as it possessed the biggest vote share having recorded an increase of 3.6 points. Nevertheless, the election camping was so unpredictable and therefore it is equally hard to predict how the election will end. It can either be the Coalition party, the Green or even the Labor party.
Reference
Live Australian election blog. (2010). Retrieved 30th July, 2010, from http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/blogs/on-the-house/4045539/Live-Australian-election-blog
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