The test counts the number of runs above and below the mean and compares the results with what one would expect from a random distribution. If the P score is close to 1 then there is a high probability that the actual runs are the same as the expected runs from a random process if the P score is below 0.05 then it is significantly different and not random.

Variance ratio test

The ratio of the longer period variance with the shorter period variance multiplied by the number of shorter time periods in the longer period ie one would expect that the monthly variance is the weekly variance x 4. You may look at days to years, months to years, weeks to months and so on. You may choose one long period or see if the variance changes over time by dividing the period into smaller time periods and so on. And of course you may choose any time series of financial data, a currency, a share price or market index – any market price that you would expect to conform to a random process.

Nested if instructions

You can use Excel to answer questions such as: if there are three rises in a row what is the probability that the share price or exchange rate will increase on the fourth day. The instruction for this is: =IF(B4>B3,IF(B3>B2,IFB2>B1,B5,””),””),””). But you can see that this enables you to choose any pattern albeit quite strictly defined. B% in this example

Your assignment will be marked according to the following grade descriptors

Grade Descriptors for Level 3

LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE	% MARK	CRITERIA
Outstanding	100-90	Demonstrates a mastery of a complex body of knowledge and the ability to use such knowledge in an innovative and creative manner to develop new insights and relate these to the particular circumstances of the situation under consideration
Excellent	89-80	Demonstrates an excellent understanding of a complex body of knowledge and the ability to analyse and synthesise knowledge, reflect on the application of theory in practice and to use these skills to develop an argument which is well structured, clearly justified and relevant to the particular circumstances of the situation under consideration.
Very good	79-70	Demonstrates a good understanding of a complex body of knowledge and the ability to analyse and synthesis knowledge from a range of appropriate sources. Is able to develop an argument which is clearly justified, justifiable and relevant to the particular circumstances of the situation or task in hand
Good	69-60	Demonstrates a detailed understanding of the subject and an ability to compare and contrast information obtained from a range of appropriate sources. Is able to apply knowledge to specific scenarios in an appropriate manner and can develop a argument which is clearly justified and relevant to the task in hand
Fair	59-50	Displays a reasonable understanding of the subject with evidence of some appropriate reading. Demonstrates some attempt to analyse and evaluate but may lack the ability to develop a well structured argument which is sufficiently focused on the task in hand
Adequate	49-40	Displays an understanding of the basics but mainly descriptive with limited evidence of analysis or evaluation. May be rather general in scope. Lacks the ability to develop a logical argument focused on the task in hand
Unsatisfactory	39-30	Demonstrates only partial understanding of the basics. Work addresses some of the obvious features of the task but fails to reach the required standard.
Poor	29-20	Inadequate and inaccurate knowledge displayed with a poor ability to interpret the task in hand. Limited effort and planning evident
Very poor	19-10	Virtually no relevant knowledge displayed. No apparent structure or meaningful discussion
Extremely poor	9-1	Totally inadequate attempt, virtually nothing of relevance to the question
No attempt	0

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