Global Warming Trends
From 1960s, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) have been reporting a constant and high rate of global warming. Temperature rise have been shown to increase at a steady read. In contrast, this paper reflects upon Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report, expected on September 27th. Contrary to most of its reports, the scientists report slower trend in temperature rise. In comparison to 2007, it is evident that temperature change will occur; however, in smaller degrees than the earlier reports.
Based on the draft report, “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS): global temperature increase resulting from the increase in amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, is highly likely to be above 1 degree Celsius but below 6 degree Celsius. In 2007, scientists reported that temperature will likely to be above 2 degree Celsius and very likely to be above 1.5 degree Celsius with no any upper limit.
Transient Climate Response (TCR) has also been used to draw comparison from the 2007 scientific report and the expected issue. Transient Climate Response (TCR) is the measure of the impact of doubling carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 70 years ahead. TCR is measured with assumptions of the delayed effect of the coming century. According to the new report, TCR is likely to be 1 to 2.5 degree Celsius and extremely unlikely be higher than 3 degree Celsius. In 2007, the report indicated that the rise was very likely to be between 1 and 3 in degree Celsius under models and 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius under observations (Ridley, 2013).According to scientists, temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius has no net ecological and economic damage. Based the expected IPCC report, there is a higher chance that by 2083, benefits associated with climate change will still be higher than its harmful effects(Ridley, 2013).
Increase in warming below 2 degrees Celsius in the coming 70 years will boost ecology and economy of cold areas in winter. Rainfall will increase, consequently increasing crops yield and expansion of forest cover. Most animals will survive harsh winters, which are associated with a lot of deaths. Carbon dioxide increase will subsequently increase growth of forests and boost crops yield. The benefits still will outweigh harmful effect of temperature rise as sea level are also expected to rise by between 1 and 3 feet. Earlier reports had exaggerated these figures that 70 years from now significantly showed more harmful climatic effects than benefits (Ridley, 2013).
Despite the lower figures in IPCC report, some scientists argue that the figures might even be lower than in the report. Scientists from the University of Illinois and Oslo University reported lower ECS models as compared to IPCC projections. A report in Nature Geoscience, which was authored by a team comprising of top IPCC scientist indicated most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity at 2 degrees Celsius (Ridley, 2013). Based on the recent reports, most scientific findings have overestimated the rate of temperature increase. The harmful effect of temperature increase, consequently, have been exaggerated. IPCC September report will create a relief on growing worries over global warming (Ridley, 2013).
The writer applied logos and ethos in drawing his conclusion. His logic is drawn from scientific evidences backed up with figures and timeline to make his conclusion that global warming is not as alarming as perceived. In the first paragraph, the Ridley catches his audience attention through ethos of climatic change. Ridley has employed a metaphor by linking the coming report and the 2007 IPCC report. Ridley has employed deductive argument to put forward his argument that temperature increase will be lower than expected. At the same time, he inductively argue through rough estimates rather than actual values in degree Celcius of the expected temperatures in 2083. Syllogisms has been effectively applied as the writer approached his topic from both equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR) perspectives.
Reference
Ridley, M. (2013). Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change: A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming. Retrieved: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324549004579067532485712464
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